Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 155.30 occurred as the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 50 pips.

The US GDP data for the last quarter of 2025, which came in at only 1.4%, fell short of analysts' expectations of 3.0%. This disappointing figure had a significant negative impact on the value of the US currency, providing support for the Japanese yen, which has been facing challenges recently.

Another factor pressuring the dollar was the US Supreme Court's decision to annul Trump's trade tariffs, which had been implemented throughout last year. This has created further uncertainty, increasing demand for the Japanese yen. This move, intended to protect the domestic market, backfired on the dollar, undermining investors' confidence in the US currency's stability. The unexpected ruling from the highest court has sparked a wave of speculation regarding further countermeasures from the Trump administration, which traditionally leads to a shift of capital into safer assets. In this context, the Japanese yen, known for its role as a safe haven during periods of global instability, has become the primary beneficiary. The Supreme Court's decision not only creates challenges for the US economy but also highlights the growing contradictions within the country regarding trade policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 154.53 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.10 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 155.10, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.21 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward opposite levels of 154.53 and 155.10 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 154.21 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 153.55 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from the level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.53 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease toward opposite levels of 154.21 and 153.55 can be anticipated.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, focus on the overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.