Bitcoin and Ether failed today to make another attempt to reach the monthly high during the European session, after which fairly noticeable profit-taking began. Bitcoin pulled back to $78,700, while Ether fell below $2,500 and is trading at $2,466.

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index remains at 74 points, approaching the extreme greed zone and reaching such levels for the first time since November 2024. Institutional demand continues to confirm the strength of the upward move. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $338 million yesterday, extending a series of inflows that has already produced several consecutive monthly records. An additional boost to the rally came from reports that the Treasury Department is considering using nearly $950 billion from the Treasury General Account to finance further bond buybacks.

However, it is important to understand that the recent sharp rise remains largely the result of a short squeeze rather than solely an improvement in fundamentals, while the next major technical test for the asset is the $88,000–$90,000 resistance level. Despite the impressive rise, Bitcoin remains approximately 36% below its October all-time high of $126,198, meaning that even amid the current euphoria, the path to a full recovery of the cycle remains considerably longer than the distance covered over the past week.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $79,600, with a target of rising to $80,600. Around $80,600, I will close the long position and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $78,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level, with a return toward $79,600 and $80,600.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $78,900, with a target of declining to $78,200. Around $78,200, I will close the short position and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $79,600 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level, with a return toward $78,900 and $78,200.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Ether when the entry point is reached around $2,486, with a target of rising to $2,504. Around $2,504, I will close the long position and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ether can be bought from the lower boundary at $2,470 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level, with a return toward $2,486 and $2,504.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Ether when the entry point is reached around $2,470, with a target of declining to $2,445. Around $2,445, I will close the short position and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ether can be sold from the upper boundary at $2,486 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level, with a return toward $2,470 and $2,445.