Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Euro

There were no tests of the levels I identified during the first half of the day. For this reason, I did not take any trades.

Low volatility in the EUR/USD pair persisted even after the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for March came in at 2.5%. This figure was slightly below economists' expectations of 2.6%. It is clear that investors will now more closely analyze upcoming macroeconomic reports to determine the direction of price dynamics. Any signs of sustained inflation growth could trigger expectations of an earlier start to the ECB's rate-hiking cycle, which would likely support the euro—albeit only temporarily.

Later today, the US consumer confidence index is scheduled for release. An improvement in this indicator typically correlates with rising optimism among consumers regarding both current and future economic conditions, which in turn may boost consumer activity and support economic growth along with a stronger dollar.

However, a much more important factor shaping market sentiment will be speeches by two Federal Reserve officials—Austan D. Goolsbee and Michael S. Barr. Their statements may provide valuable insight into policymakers' views on the current economic situation, inflation dynamics, and possible future adjustments to monetary policy—especially after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets yesterday with his dovish comments on inflation.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases are possible upon reaching the level of 1.1481 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1519. At 1.1519, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. Expect euro growth today only if Fed representatives adopt a dovish tone.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1462 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward 1.1481 and 1.1519 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.1462 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1426, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1481 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1462 and 1.1426 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – expected level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – expected level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you are not using proper money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.