Trade analysis and trading tips for the European currency

The test of the 1.1677 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the euro—especially within the context of the bullish Asian session move. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 points.

Positive ZEW index data for the eurozone provided noticeable support for the European currency, as the figures exceeded economists' forecasts by a wide margin. However, the main driver of growth was geopolitical tension and the risk of the United States imposing trade tariffs on a number of European countries that did not share Trump's interest in purchasing Greenland.

In the second half of the day, the ADP report on weekly employment changes will be released. The likelihood that these data will significantly push the dollar higher is low. Against the backdrop of prevailing rumors about sell-offs in U.S. Treasury bonds—which are supporting the euro—domestic economic indicators such as ADP may go largely unnoticed. For this reason, even very favorable employment data could be ignored. All attention remains focused on Greenland and the "sparring" between the U.S. and the EU.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1734 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.1770 level. At 1.1770, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further strong euro growth is also possible.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1697 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1734 and 1.1770 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1697 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1664 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair would return in the event that Trump abandons the Greenland issue and trade tariffs.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1734 price level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1697 and 1.1664 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very cautiously. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.